From Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”