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Within the immense confusion surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday marked its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may regret it if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.