Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.